2025-26 season · through Week 27

NHL power rankings, week 28

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +0.98 goals, the Hurricanes No. 2 (+0.84), the Lightning No. 3 (+0.62).

Biggest climb since last week: the Capitals, up 3 to No. 12. Biggest drop: the Devils, down 3 to No. 16. The Canadiens have 106 points with +19.3 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The Golden Knights have lost −7.8 points to luck and rank above their standing. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Pts	Rating	This season	Last season	Luck
1	–	Avalanche	52–16–11	115	+0.98	+0.94	+0.04	+3.3
2	–	Hurricanes	52–22–6	110	+0.84	+0.79	+0.05	+3.0
3	–	Lightning	49–25–6	104	+0.62	+0.58	+0.04	+1.2
4	–	Golden Knights	37–26–17	91	+0.49	+0.45	+0.04	−7.8
5	▲1	Senators	43–27–11	97	+0.44	+0.44	0.00	−0.8
6	▼1	Stars	48–20–12	108	+0.41	+0.38	+0.03	+8.6
7	–	Mammoth	42–32–6	90	+0.23	+0.22	+0.01	−1.7
8	–	Penguins	41–24–16	98	+0.19	+0.21	−0.02	+5.0
9	▲2	Sabres	49–23–8	106	+0.17	+0.19	−0.02	+13.4
10	–	Wild	45–23–12	102	+0.15	+0.15	−0.01	+10.6
11	▼2	Oilers	40–30–10	90	+0.13	+0.09	+0.04	+0.9
12	▲3	Capitals	42–30–9	93	+0.13	+0.11	+0.02	+2.3
13	▼1	Kings	34–26–19	87	+0.13	+0.11	+0.02	−1.3
14	▲2	Blue Jackets	40–29–12	92	+0.11	+0.13	−0.03	+1.5
15	▼1	Flyers	41–27–12	94	+0.10	+0.11	−0.01	+6.8
16	▼3	Devils	42–36–3	87	+0.08	+0.06	+0.02	+1.7
17	–	Jets	35–32–12	82	+0.05	+0.01	+0.04	−3.8
18	–	Canadiens	48–23–10	106	+0.03	+0.06	−0.03	+19.3
19	–	Panthers	38–38–4	80	+0.01	−0.04	+0.05	−2.5
20	–	Red Wings	41–30–9	91	−0.02	−0.02	0.00	+7.5
21	▲1	Ducks	42–32–6	90	−0.18	−0.12	−0.06	+9.3
22	▼1	Blues	34–33–12	80	−0.18	−0.19	+0.01	+1.4
23	–	Bruins	44–27–10	98	−0.27	−0.27	−0.01	+18.6
24	▲2	Islanders	43–33–5	91	−0.31	−0.30	−0.01	+13.5
25	▼1	Rangers	33–38–9	75	−0.31	−0.31	−0.01	−1.8
26	▼1	Predators	38–32–10	86	−0.34	−0.34	0.00	+9.5
27	▲1	Kraken	34–34–11	79	−0.45	−0.43	−0.03	+5.6
28	▼1	Maple Leafs	32–34–14	78	−0.50	−0.52	+0.02	+7.3
29	▲1	Flames	33–38–9	75	−0.53	−0.50	−0.03	+3.3
30	▼1	Sharks	37–34–8	82	−0.55	−0.46	−0.09	+12.2
31	–	Blackhawks	28–38–14	70	−0.81	−0.72	−0.08	+3.0
32	–	Canucks	24–48–8	56	−0.85	−0.84	−0.01	−4.5

Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 28 of 2025-26?

The Colorado Avalanche, rated +0.98 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 52–16–11 record. Next: the Hurricanes (+0.84) and the Lightning (+0.62).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Canadiens: 106 points, +19.3 of them luck, ranked 18.

Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1

Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work