2025-26 season · through Week 10

NHL power rankings, week 11

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +1.10 goals, the Lightning No. 2 (+0.70), the Hurricanes No. 3 (+0.68).

Biggest climb since last week: the Wild, up 8 to No. 15. Biggest drop: the Blues, down 8 to No. 25. The Sharks have 35 points with +9.0 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The Mammoth have lost −3.0 points to luck and rank above their standing. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Pts	Rating	This season	Last season	Luck
1	–	Avalanche	23–2–7	53	+1.10	+1.03	+0.07	+3.6
2	–	Lightning	18–11–3	39	+0.70	+0.62	+0.08	−2.5
3	–	Hurricanes	21–9–2	44	+0.68	+0.57	+0.11	+2.7
4	–	Golden Knights	16–6–9	41	+0.52	+0.43	+0.09	+1.6
5	–	Capitals	18–10–4	40	+0.41	+0.36	+0.05	+0.5
6	▲1	Panthers	16–13–2	34	+0.28	+0.18	+0.10	−1.9
7	▼1	Stars	21–7–5	47	+0.27	+0.21	+0.07	+6.7
8	▲2	Kings	14–8–9	37	+0.23	+0.20	+0.04	+0.2
9	–	Mammoth	16–15–3	35	+0.17	+0.17	0.00	−3.0
10	▼2	Red Wings	18–12–3	39	+0.12	+0.14	−0.02	+2.2
11	▲2	Jets	15–15–1	31	+0.05	−0.02	+0.07	−2.6
12	▲3	Devils	18–14–1	37	+0.03	−0.01	+0.04	+2.4
13	▼2	Rangers	16–13–4	36	+0.02	+0.03	−0.01	+0.2
14	▼2	Penguins	14–8–9	37	+0.02	+0.07	−0.05	+2.4
15	▲8	Wild	19–9–5	43	−0.02	0.00	−0.01	+6.7
16	▼2	Islanders	19–11–3	41	−0.02	−0.02	0.00	+6.1
17	▲2	Senators	14–13–4	32	−0.05	−0.05	0.00	0.0
18	▲2	Flyers	16–9–6	38	−0.09	−0.10	0.00	+5.3
19	▼1	Sabres	14–14–4	32	−0.14	−0.09	−0.04	−0.2
20	▲1	Oilers	15–12–6	36	−0.14	−0.23	+0.09	+3.7
21	▼5	Ducks	19–12–1	39	−0.17	−0.05	−0.12	+7.6
22	▲3	Canadiens	17–11–4	38	−0.19	−0.13	−0.06	+5.8
23	▲1	Maple Leafs	14–12–5	33	−0.20	−0.22	+0.03	+1.6
24	▲3	Flames	13–16–4	30	−0.22	−0.16	−0.06	−2.7
25	▼8	Blues	12–14–7	31	−0.24	−0.24	0.00	−1.6
26	▼4	Blue Jackets	13–13–6	32	−0.24	−0.20	−0.04	+0.8
27	▲1	Bruins	19–14–0	38	−0.32	−0.30	−0.01	+7.9
28	▲1	Canucks	12–17–3	27	−0.43	−0.41	−0.02	−1.1
29	▼3	Kraken	12–12–6	30	−0.43	−0.37	−0.06	+1.7
30	–	Predators	12–15–4	28	−0.45	−0.46	+0.01	+1.5
31	–	Blackhawks	13–13–6	32	−0.60	−0.42	−0.18	+1.6
32	–	Sharks	16–14–3	35	−0.69	−0.52	−0.17	+9.0

Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 11 of 2025-26?

The Colorado Avalanche, rated +1.10 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 23–2–7 record. Next: the Lightning (+0.70) and the Hurricanes (+0.68).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Sharks: 35 points, +9.0 of them luck, ranked 32.

Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1

Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work