2025-26 season · through Week 22

NHL power rankings, week 23

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +1.05 goals, the Hurricanes No. 2 (+0.75), the Lightning No. 3 (+0.71).

Biggest climb since last week: the Devils, up 3 to No. 17. Biggest drop: the Islanders, down 4 to No. 27. The Islanders have 77 points with +15.3 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The Golden Knights have lost −6.1 points to luck and rank above their standing. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Pts	Rating	This season	Last season	Luck
1	–	Avalanche	43–10–9	95	+1.05	+1.00	+0.05	+4.8
2	▲1	Hurricanes	40–17–6	86	+0.75	+0.69	+0.07	+2.8
3	▼1	Lightning	39–19–4	82	+0.71	+0.66	+0.05	+0.9
4	▲1	Stars	39–14–10	88	+0.50	+0.47	+0.03	+6.8
5	▼1	Golden Knights	29–21–14	72	+0.42	+0.37	+0.05	−6.1
6	–	Senators	31–22–9	71	+0.35	+0.35	+0.01	−2.5
7	▲1	Mammoth	34–25–4	72	+0.28	+0.27	+0.01	−1.2
8	▼1	Penguins	32–17–14	78	+0.23	+0.26	−0.03	+2.3
9	–	Panthers	31–29–3	65	+0.15	+0.09	+0.06	−2.8
10	▲1	Kings	25–23–14	64	+0.12	+0.09	+0.03	−3.7
11	▲2	Wild	37–16–11	85	+0.11	+0.11	−0.01	+13.2
12	▼2	Capitals	31–26–7	69	+0.10	+0.08	+0.02	−1.9
13	▼1	Oilers	31–25–8	70	+0.10	+0.04	+0.05	−0.6
14	–	Sabres	39–19–6	84	+0.09	+0.12	−0.02	+12.2
15	–	Red Wings	36–21–7	79	+0.05	+0.06	0.00	+11.0
16	▲2	Jets	26–26–10	62	+0.02	−0.02	+0.05	−5.3
17	▲3	Devils	32–30–2	66	+0.02	−0.01	+0.02	+0.7
18	▼2	Blue Jackets	32–21–9	73	0.00	+0.04	−0.03	+5.5
19	▼2	Flyers	29–22–11	69	−0.06	−0.05	−0.01	+4.7
20	▼1	Canadiens	34–18–10	78	−0.07	−0.04	−0.04	+13.9
21	–	Ducks	35–25–3	73	−0.25	−0.18	−0.07	+12.3
22	–	Maple Leafs	27–26–11	65	−0.26	−0.28	+0.02	+3.0
23	▲2	Blues	25–29–9	59	−0.26	−0.27	+0.01	−1.2
24	▲2	Predators	28–27–8	64	−0.29	−0.30	+0.01	+4.2
25	▼1	Bruins	35–22–6	76	−0.33	−0.32	−0.01	+15.0
26	▲1	Rangers	24–30–8	56	−0.34	−0.33	−0.01	−2.0
27	▼4	Islanders	36–23–5	77	−0.34	−0.33	−0.01	+15.3
28	–	Kraken	29–24–9	67	−0.40	−0.36	−0.03	+7.3
29	–	Flames	25–30–7	57	−0.45	−0.41	−0.04	−0.7
30	–	Sharks	30–25–6	66	−0.50	−0.40	−0.11	+11.6
31	–	Blackhawks	23–29–11	57	−0.73	−0.63	−0.10	+2.2
32	–	Canucks	19–36–8	46	−0.77	−0.76	−0.01	−3.4

Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 23 of 2025-26?

The Colorado Avalanche, rated +1.05 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 43–10–9 record. Next: the Hurricanes (+0.75) and the Lightning (+0.71).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Islanders: 77 points, +15.3 of them luck, ranked 27.

Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1

Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work