2025-26 season · through Week 21

NHL power rankings, week 22

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +1.01 goals, the Lightning No. 2 (+0.77), the Hurricanes No. 3 (+0.72).

Biggest climb since last week: the Sabres, up 2 to No. 14. Biggest drop: the Predators, down 2 to No. 26. The Islanders have 75 points with +14.9 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The Golden Knights have lost −5.0 points to luck and rank above their standing. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Pts	Rating	This season	Last season	Luck
1	–	Avalanche	39–10–9	87	+1.01	+0.96	+0.05	+2.5
2	–	Lightning	38–16–4	80	+0.77	+0.72	+0.05	+2.4
3	–	Hurricanes	38–15–6	82	+0.72	+0.65	+0.07	+5.3
4	–	Golden Knights	28–18–14	70	+0.46	+0.41	+0.05	−5.0
5	–	Stars	36–14–9	81	+0.42	+0.39	+0.04	+6.6
6	–	Senators	29–22–8	66	+0.32	+0.31	+0.01	−3.3
7	–	Penguins	31–15–13	75	+0.25	+0.28	−0.03	+3.7
8	–	Mammoth	31–25–4	66	+0.23	+0.22	+0.01	−2.7
9	–	Panthers	30–27–3	63	+0.21	+0.15	+0.06	−2.7
10	–	Capitals	31–24–7	69	+0.15	+0.12	+0.03	−0.9
11	–	Kings	24–21–14	62	+0.08	+0.06	+0.03	−2.1
12	▲1	Oilers	29–24–8	66	+0.07	+0.02	+0.05	−1.2
13	▼1	Wild	35–16–10	80	+0.07	+0.08	−0.01	+12.0
14	▲2	Sabres	35–19–6	76	+0.06	+0.08	−0.02	+9.7
15	▼1	Red Wings	34–20–6	74	+0.02	+0.02	−0.01	+11.3
16	▼1	Blue Jackets	29–21–8	66	+0.01	+0.05	−0.04	+2.9
17	–	Flyers	27–21–11	65	−0.01	−0.01	0.00	+2.6
18	–	Jets	23–26–10	56	−0.03	−0.08	+0.05	−6.5
19	–	Canadiens	33–17–9	75	−0.05	−0.01	−0.03	+13.6
20	–	Devils	29–29–2	60	−0.05	−0.08	+0.03	+0.6
21	▲1	Ducks	33–23–3	69	−0.21	−0.14	−0.07	+11.9
22	▼1	Maple Leafs	27–24–9	63	−0.21	−0.24	+0.02	+3.9
23	–	Islanders	35–21–5	75	−0.28	−0.28	0.00	+14.9
24	▲2	Bruins	33–21–5	71	−0.31	−0.30	−0.01	+13.7
25	–	Blues	22–29–9	53	−0.32	−0.33	+0.01	−3.6
26	▼2	Predators	27–24–8	62	−0.32	−0.32	+0.01	+6.6
27	–	Rangers	23–29–7	53	−0.33	−0.33	−0.01	−1.8
28	–	Kraken	28–22–9	65	−0.39	−0.35	−0.04	+7.7
29	–	Flames	24–28–7	55	−0.40	−0.35	−0.04	−1.7
30	–	Sharks	29–25–4	62	−0.51	−0.40	−0.11	+11.4
31	▲1	Blackhawks	23–28–9	55	−0.71	−0.60	−0.11	+2.4
32	▼1	Canucks	18–34–7	43	−0.72	−0.70	−0.02	−4.4

Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 22 of 2025-26?

The Colorado Avalanche, rated +1.01 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 39–10–9 record. Next: the Lightning (+0.77) and the Hurricanes (+0.72).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Islanders: 75 points, +14.9 of them luck, ranked 23.

Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1

Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work