2025-26 season · through Week 20

NHL power rankings, week 21

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +1.07 goals, the Lightning No. 2 (+0.79), the Hurricanes No. 3 (+0.72).

Biggest climb since last week: the Wild, up 2 to No. 12. Biggest drop: the Sabres, down 3 to No. 16. The Bruins have 69 points with +14.0 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The Golden Knights have lost −3.7 points to luck and rank above their standing. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Pts	Rating	This season	Last season	Luck
1	–	Avalanche	37–9–9	83	+1.07	+1.02	+0.05	+1.8
2	–	Lightning	37–14–4	78	+0.79	+0.73	+0.05	+3.7
3	–	Hurricanes	36–15–6	78	+0.72	+0.65	+0.07	+4.0
4	–	Golden Knights	27–16–14	68	+0.45	+0.40	+0.05	−3.7
5	–	Stars	34–14–9	77	+0.42	+0.39	+0.04	+5.4
6	–	Senators	28–22–7	63	+0.29	+0.28	+0.01	−3.1
7	▲1	Penguins	29–15–12	70	+0.23	+0.27	−0.04	+3.2
8	▼1	Mammoth	30–23–4	64	+0.22	+0.21	+0.01	−1.2
9	▲1	Panthers	29–25–3	61	+0.17	+0.10	+0.07	−0.4
10	▼1	Capitals	29–23–7	65	+0.14	+0.11	+0.03	−1.4
11	–	Kings	23–19–14	60	+0.13	+0.10	+0.03	−2.0
12	▲2	Wild	34–14–10	78	+0.07	+0.08	−0.01	+12.5
13	▼1	Oilers	28–22–8	64	+0.05	0.00	+0.06	+1.0
14	▲2	Red Wings	33–19–6	72	+0.04	+0.04	−0.01	+10.4
15	▲2	Blue Jackets	29–20–7	65	+0.03	+0.07	−0.04	+3.8
16	▼3	Sabres	32–19–6	70	+0.02	+0.04	−0.03	+7.2
17	▲1	Flyers	25–20–11	61	−0.01	0.00	−0.01	+1.7
18	▼3	Jets	22–26–8	52	−0.03	−0.08	+0.06	−6.9
19	–	Canadiens	32–17–8	72	−0.04	−0.01	−0.04	+12.9
20	–	Devils	28–27–2	58	−0.09	−0.12	+0.03	+2.5
21	–	Maple Leafs	27–21–9	63	−0.15	−0.17	+0.02	+4.9
22	–	Ducks	30–23–3	63	−0.21	−0.13	−0.08	+9.0
23	–	Islanders	32–21–5	69	−0.29	−0.28	0.00	+11.7
24	▲2	Predators	26–24–7	59	−0.31	−0.32	+0.01	+5.6
25	▼1	Blues	20–28–9	49	−0.31	−0.32	+0.01	−4.3
26	▲1	Bruins	32–20–5	69	−0.33	−0.32	−0.01	+14.0
27	▼2	Rangers	22–29–6	50	−0.33	−0.32	−0.01	−2.9
28	–	Kraken	27–20–9	63	−0.40	−0.36	−0.04	+8.6
29	–	Flames	23–27–6	52	−0.41	−0.37	−0.04	−1.4
30	–	Sharks	27–24–4	58	−0.52	−0.40	−0.12	+10.4
31	–	Canucks	18–33–6	42	−0.68	−0.67	−0.02	−4.4
32	–	Blackhawks	22–26–9	53	−0.74	−0.63	−0.11	+3.1

Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 21 of 2025-26?

The Colorado Avalanche, rated +1.07 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 37–9–9 record. Next: the Lightning (+0.79) and the Hurricanes (+0.72).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Bruins: 69 points, +14.0 of them luck, ranked 26.

Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1

Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work