2025-26 season · through Week 14

NHL power rankings, week 15

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +1.20 goals, the Lightning No. 2 (+0.75), the Hurricanes No. 3 (+0.67).

Biggest climb since last week: the Sabres, up 3 to No. 12. Biggest drop: the Wild, down 3 to No. 13. The Sharks have 49 points with +10.6 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The Mammoth have lost −3.9 points to luck and rank above their standing. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Pts	Rating	This season	Last season	Luck
1	–	Avalanche	33–4–7	73	+1.20	+1.14	+0.07	+5.2
2	–	Lightning	27–13–3	57	+0.75	+0.68	+0.07	+0.1
3	–	Hurricanes	28–14–3	59	+0.67	+0.58	+0.09	+2.1
4	–	Golden Knights	21–11–12	54	+0.45	+0.38	+0.07	−1.0
5	▲2	Stars	26–10–9	61	+0.29	+0.25	+0.04	+6.1
6	▼1	Capitals	23–17–6	52	+0.25	+0.22	+0.03	−2.2
7	▼1	Panthers	23–18–3	49	+0.19	+0.10	+0.08	+1.0
8	–	Mammoth	22–20–4	48	+0.17	+0.16	+0.01	−3.9
9	–	Kings	19–15–10	48	+0.16	+0.12	+0.03	−1.7
10	▲1	Senators	20–19–5	45	+0.08	+0.07	0.00	−2.7
11	▲1	Penguins	21–14–9	51	+0.06	+0.10	−0.04	+1.6
12	▲3	Sabres	24–15–4	52	+0.05	+0.09	−0.04	+4.5
13	▼3	Wild	26–11–9	61	+0.04	+0.05	−0.01	+9.4
14	▼1	Flyers	22–13–8	52	+0.04	+0.05	−0.01	+4.5
15	▲1	Red Wings	27–15–4	58	+0.03	+0.04	−0.01	+8.2
16	▲2	Canadiens	25–14–6	56	−0.01	+0.04	−0.04	+8.3
17	▼3	Jets	17–22–5	39	−0.02	−0.08	+0.07	−7.3
18	▼1	Devils	22–21–2	46	−0.03	−0.07	+0.03	+1.9
19	▲1	Oilers	22–16–7	51	−0.03	−0.11	+0.07	+4.6
20	▲1	Blue Jackets	19–19–7	45	−0.08	−0.04	−0.04	−1.4
21	▲1	Maple Leafs	22–15–7	51	−0.09	−0.11	+0.02	+4.2
22	▼3	Rangers	20–20–6	46	−0.11	−0.11	−0.01	−0.4
23	–	Ducks	21–21–3	45	−0.25	−0.15	−0.09	+2.5
24	–	Islanders	25–15–5	55	−0.25	−0.25	0.00	+10.2
25	–	Blues	17–21–8	42	−0.27	−0.27	0.00	−2.6
26	▲2	Bruins	25–19–2	52	−0.34	−0.33	−0.01	+8.4
27	▼1	Flames	19–22–4	42	−0.37	−0.32	−0.04	−0.7
28	▼1	Predators	21–20–4	46	−0.41	−0.42	+0.01	+5.4
29	–	Kraken	20–15–8	48	−0.43	−0.39	−0.05	+7.0
30	–	Canucks	16–23–5	37	−0.52	−0.50	−0.02	−1.1
31	–	Sharks	23–19–3	49	−0.55	−0.41	−0.14	+10.6
32	–	Blackhawks	19–19–7	45	−0.64	−0.51	−0.14	+3.4

Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 15 of 2025-26?

The Colorado Avalanche, rated +1.20 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 33–4–7 record. Next: the Lightning (+0.75) and the Hurricanes (+0.67).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Sharks: 49 points, +10.6 of them luck, ranked 31.

Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1

Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work