2025-26 season · through Week 17

NHL power rankings, week 18

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a game it would beat an average team by on neutral ice. The Avalanche are No. 1 at +1.09 goals, the Lightning No. 2 (+0.79), the Hurricanes No. 3 (+0.72).

Biggest climb since last week: the Senators, up 4 to No. 6. Biggest drop: the Panthers, down 3 to No. 10. The Bruins have 68 points with +14.0 of luck in them, so they rank below what the standings say. The Jets have lost −7.0 points to luck and rank above their standing. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Pts	Rating	This season	Last season	Luck
1	–	Avalanche	36–8–9	81	+1.09	+1.04	+0.06	+2.1
2	–	Lightning	35–14–4	74	+0.79	+0.74	+0.05	+2.7
3	–	Hurricanes	34–15–6	74	+0.72	+0.65	+0.07	+2.8
4	–	Golden Knights	25–16–14	64	+0.46	+0.40	+0.06	−4.9
5	–	Stars	32–14–9	73	+0.39	+0.35	+0.04	+4.7
6	▲4	Senators	26–21–7	59	+0.22	+0.22	+0.01	−2.9
7	▼1	Mammoth	28–23–4	60	+0.21	+0.20	+0.01	−2.2
8	▲3	Penguins	28–14–11	67	+0.20	+0.24	−0.04	+4.1
9	▼1	Capitals	27–22–7	61	+0.17	+0.15	+0.03	−2.4
10	▼3	Panthers	28–23–3	59	+0.17	+0.10	+0.07	+0.2
11	▼2	Kings	23–17–14	60	+0.13	+0.10	+0.03	−0.1
12	▲1	Oilers	28–20–8	64	+0.08	+0.03	+0.06	+2.4
13	▲1	Sabres	31–18–5	67	+0.06	+0.09	−0.03	+6.4
14	▼2	Wild	32–14–10	74	+0.06	+0.07	−0.01	+11.1
15	▲2	Jets	22–25–7	51	+0.01	−0.04	+0.06	−7.0
16	▼1	Red Wings	32–18–6	70	+0.01	+0.01	−0.01	+10.7
17	▲2	Blue Jackets	27–20–7	61	0.00	+0.04	−0.04	+3.0
18	▼2	Flyers	24–20–10	58	−0.01	−0.01	−0.01	+1.1
19	▲1	Canadiens	31–17–7	69	−0.06	−0.02	−0.04	+12.3
20	▼2	Devils	28–25–2	58	−0.06	−0.09	+0.03	+3.8
21	▲1	Maple Leafs	25–21–9	59	−0.18	−0.20	+0.02	+3.8
22	▼1	Ducks	29–23–3	61	−0.22	−0.15	−0.08	+8.6
23	▲2	Islanders	30–20–5	65	−0.28	−0.28	−0.01	+10.3
24	–	Blues	20–26–9	49	−0.30	−0.31	+0.01	−2.6
25	▼2	Rangers	22–28–6	50	−0.30	−0.29	−0.01	−2.7
26	▲1	Predators	25–23–6	56	−0.32	−0.33	+0.01	+5.6
27	▼1	Bruins	32–20–4	68	−0.33	−0.32	−0.01	+14.0
28	–	Kraken	26–19–9	61	−0.40	−0.36	−0.04	+8.6
29	–	Flames	22–26–6	50	−0.41	−0.36	−0.04	−1.3
30	–	Sharks	27–22–4	58	−0.50	−0.38	−0.12	+11.6
31	–	Canucks	18–31–6	42	−0.67	−0.65	−0.02	−3.6
32	–	Blackhawks	21–25–9	51	−0.74	−0.62	−0.11	+2.9

Rating: goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal and expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the team’s play was worth, every game replayed 4,000 times. Goalie starts and injuries are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NHL power rankings for week 18 of 2025-26?

The Colorado Avalanche, rated +1.09 goals a game better than an average team on neutral ice, from a 36–8–9 record. Next: the Lightning (+0.79) and the Hurricanes (+0.72).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal margins (capped at four goals) and expected-goal margins, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as games are played. Expected goals carry most of the weight because they say more about the games ahead than goals do. The rating is the goals a game a team would beat an average team by on neutral ice; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: shooting and save percentages that won’t last, and overtimes and shootouts that are close to coin flips. A team is rated on how it played, like the Bruins: 68 points, +14.0 of them luck, ranked 27.

Other seasons: 2026-27 week 1

Predictions · Luck rankings 2025-26 · Standings adjusted for luck · How the replays work