2019 NFL season · final · regular season

Expected wins, 2019: what each team’s play was worth

The Packers won 13 games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.0, the biggest gap in the league, and points scored and allowed put them at 9.7. The Chargers are the other way round: 5 wins from play worth 10.8.

Team	Record	Replay wins	Coin-flip wins	Pythagorean	Betting line	Wins − replay
Ravens	14–2	13.8	12.9	13.1	10.3	+0.2
49ers	13–3	11.7	11.6	11.8	9.8	+1.3
Saints	13–3	10.9	12.5	10.7	9.8	+2.1
Packers	13–3	8.0	10.1	9.7	9.6	+5.0
Chiefs	12–4	10.7	11.3	11.4	10.1	+1.3
Patriots	12–4	9.8	11.9	13.0	11.9	+2.2
Seahawks	11–5	7.1	7.7	8.2	9.1	+3.9
Vikings	10–6	9.5	11.6	10.7	9.6	+0.5
Bills	10–6	9.2	9.1	9.8	8.1	+0.8
Texans	10–6	8.7	7.2	7.8	8.0	+1.3
Rams	9–7	10.1	9.6	8.7	9.2	−1.1
Eagles	9–7	9.0	9.0	8.8	9.2	0.0
Titans	9–7	6.6	10.0	9.8	8.3	+2.4
Cowboys	8–8	13.5	9.9	10.7	10.3	−5.5
Steelers	8–8	6.6	5.9	7.6	8.2	+1.4
Bears	8–8	4.0	6.3	7.4	8.7	+4.0
Buccaneers	7–9	10.6	8.8	8.2	7.6	−3.6
Colts	7–9	9.4	8.3	7.7	8.1	−2.4
Falcons	7–9	8.7	7.5	7.6	7.1	−1.7
Raiders	7–9	8.1	8.3	5.3	6.8	−1.1
Broncos	7–9	6.4	6.1	6.9	6.8	+0.6
Jets	7–9	4.5	8.0	5.6	6.1	+2.5
Browns	6–10	6.6	5.8	6.5	8.3	−0.6
Jaguars	6–10	5.4	6.4	5.4	7.0	+0.6
Cardinals	5–10–1	6.7	6.8	6.1	5.5	−1.2
Chargers	5–11	10.8	6.8	7.8	8.7	−5.8
Panthers	5–11	4.1	4.4	5.1	7.2	+0.9
Dolphins	5–11	3.7	3.9	3.9	3.8	+1.3
Giants	4–12	6.2	4.7	5.4	6.4	−2.2
Lions	3–12–1	6.6	5.3	6.0	6.2	−3.1
Washington	3–13	4.5	3.8	3.8	4.9	−1.5
Bengals	2–14	4.4	4.5	4.4	5.5	−2.4

Replay wins: Summed over the season: how often the team wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams actually played.
Coin-flip wins: The same with only kicks, bounces, drops, conversions and calls re-rolled. The number that best predicts the rest of a season: correlation 0.437 against 0.378 for actual wins.
Pythagorean: From points scored and allowed: games × PF^2.37 / (PF^2.37 + PA^2.37).
Betting line: Summed win chances from each game’s closing spread: what the market expected before kickoff.

Luck-adjusted standings

Each division: record on the left, replay wins on the right. A line that falls from left to right belongs to a team whose record ran ahead of its play.

AFC East

NE 12–4

BUF 10–6

NYJ 7–9

MIA 5–11 9.89.24.53.7

RecordReplay wins

AFC North

BAL 14–2

PIT 8–8

CLE 6–10

CIN 2–14 13.86.66.64.4

RecordReplay wins

AFC South

HOU 10–6

TEN 9–7

IND 7–9

JAX 6–10 8.76.69.45.4

RecordReplay wins

AFC West

KC 12–4

DEN 7–9

OAK 7–9

LAC 5–11 10.76.48.110.8

RecordReplay wins

NFC East

PHI 9–7

DAL 8–8

NYG 4–12

WAS 3–13 9.013.56.24.5

RecordReplay wins

NFC North

GB 13–3

MIN 10–6

CHI 8–8

DET 3–12–1 8.09.54.06.6

RecordReplay wins

NFC South

NO 13–3

ATL 7–9

TB 7–9

CAR 5–11 10.98.710.64.1

RecordReplay wins

NFC West

SF 13–3

SEA 11–5

LA 9–7

ARI 5–10–1 11.77.110.16.7

RecordReplay wins

Adjust the assumptions

Change how much of each kind of play counts as luck, and every team’s coin-flip wins are recomputed for the whole season.

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 25%Fumble bounces 75%Interceptions 0%Drops 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 100%Pre-snap flags 0%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

Tested on 19,000 lucky breaks: no momentum, so it’s off by default. Why

#	Team	Wins	Coin-flip wins	Luck
1	Ravens	14	12.9	+1.1
2	Saints	13	12.6	+0.4
3	Patriots	12	11.9	+0.1
4	49ers	13	11.6	+1.4
5	Vikings	10	11.6	−1.6
6	Chiefs	12	11.3	+0.7
7	Packers	13	10.2	+2.8
8	Titans	9	10.0	−1.0
9	Cowboys	8	9.9	−1.9
10	Rams	9	9.6	−0.6
11	Bills	10	9.1	+0.9
12	Eagles	9	9.0	0.0
13	Buccaneers	7	8.9	−1.9
14	Raiders	7	8.4	−1.4
15	Colts	7	8.3	−1.3
16	Jets	7	8.0	−1.0
17	Seahawks	11	7.8	+3.2
18	Falcons	7	7.5	−0.5
19	Texans	10	7.2	+2.8
20	Cardinals	5.5	6.8	−1.3
21	Chargers	5	6.7	−1.7
22	Jaguars	6	6.4	−0.4
23	Bears	8	6.4	+1.6
24	Broncos	7	6.1	+0.9
25	Steelers	8	5.8	+2.2
26	Browns	6	5.8	+0.2
27	Lions	3.5	5.3	−1.8
28	Giants	4	4.7	−0.7
29	Bengals	2	4.5	−2.5
30	Panthers	5	4.4	+0.6
31	Dolphins	5	3.9	+1.1
32	Washington	3	3.7	−0.7

2019 luck rankings · One-score games · Referee calls · Methodology