2019 NFL season · final · decided by 8 points or fewer

One-score games, 2019

The Seahawks went 10–2 in one-score games; replayed with the same day’s form, they win 6.1 of those 12, the most close-game luck in the league. The Chargers went 2–9, from play worth 7.6 wins. If every one-score game had gone the other way, the Cowboys would lead the league at 13–3.

Close-game records look like clutch and rarely last: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s one-score win rate carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record.

Team	One-score record	Replay wins in those	Close-game luck	Record	If they flipped
Packers	8–1	5.5 of 9	+2.5	13–3	6–10
Saints	7–1	5.0 of 8	+2.0	13–3	7–9
Seahawks	10–2	6.1 of 12	+3.9	11–5	3–13
Ravens	5–1	4.8 of 6	+0.2	14–2	10–6
Texans	8–3	6.6 of 11	+1.4	10–6	5–11
Jets	5–2	2.5 of 7	+2.5	7–9	4–12
Dolphins	5–2	3.3 of 7	+1.7	5–11	2–14
Raiders	7–3	6.6 of 10	+0.4	7–9	3–13
49ers	5–3	4.6 of 8	+0.4	13–3	11–5
Patriots	4–3	3.1 of 7	+0.9	12–4	11–5
Chiefs	5–4	4.4 of 9	+0.6	12–4	11–5
Bears	6–5	2.6 of 11	+3.4	8–8	7–9
Steelers	6–5	4.4 of 11	+1.6	8–8	7–9
Eagles	5–5	5.9 of 10	−0.9	9–7	9–7
Titans	3–3	1.5 of 6	+1.5	9–7	9–7
Rams	3–3	4.1 of 6	−1.1	9–7	9–7
Washington	3–3	2.2 of 6	+0.8	3–13	3–13
Colts	5–6	6.3 of 11	−1.3	7–9	8–8
Bills	4–5	4.8 of 9	−0.8	10–6	11–5
Broncos	4–5	3.7 of 9	+0.3	7–9	8–8
Falcons	3–4	3.5 of 7	−0.5	7–9	8–8
Jaguars	2–3	1.6 of 5	+0.4	6–10	7–9
Cardinals	3–5–1	4.1 of 9	−0.6	5–10–1	7–8–1
Buccaneers	3–6	6.0 of 9	−3.0	7–9	10–6
Vikings	2–4	3.3 of 6	−1.3	10–6	12–4
Browns	2–4	2.6 of 6	−0.6	6–10	8–8
Lions	3–8–1	6.1 of 12	−2.6	3–12–1	8–7–1
Giants	2–5	2.4 of 7	−0.4	4–12	7–9
Panthers	2–6	1.8 of 8	+0.2	5–11	9–7
Chargers	2–9	7.6 of 11	−5.6	5–11	12–4
Cowboys	1–6	5.2 of 7	−4.2	8–8	13–3
Bengals	0–8	1.9 of 8	−1.9	2–14	10–6