luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

2026 season · before the first game

NFL power rankings, week 1

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the points it would beat an average team by on a neutral field. The Rams are No. 1 at +5.7 points, the Seahawks No. 2 (+4.8), the Bills No. 3 (+4.3).

Before a game is played the ratings are last season’s, pulled toward the middle, and each team’s starting quarterback: what the predictions for week 1 start from. The same ratings make our predictions.

#Team Rating Last seasonQB
1 Rams +5.7 +4.3+1.4
2 Seahawks +4.8 +4.2+0.6
3 Bills +4.3 +3.0+1.3
4 Patriots +4.1 +3.3+0.8
5 Lions +3.5 +1.9+1.6
6 Broncos +3.4 +3.0+0.4
7 Jaguars +2.3 +2.30.0
8 Packers +2.2 +0.8+1.4
9 Texans +2.0 +2.2−0.3
10 Ravens +1.8 +0.9+0.9
11 Eagles +1.7 +1.4+0.3
12 Chiefs +1.6 +0.8+0.8
13 49ers +1.5 +0.8+0.7
14 Colts +0.6 +0.5+0.1
15 Chargers +0.5 +0.7−0.2
16 Bears +0.4 +0.50.0
17 Cowboys −0.3 −1.0+0.7
18 Steelers −0.4 0.0−0.4
19 Vikings −0.9 −0.8−0.1
20 Buccaneers −1.1 −1.4+0.3
21 Bengals −1.3 −1.9+0.6
22 Panthers −1.7 −0.8−0.9
23 Saints −1.8 −0.9−0.9
24 Dolphins −2.1 −1.9−0.1
25 Commanders −2.3 −2.30.0
26 Giants −2.5 −1.7−0.8
27 Falcons −2.6 −0.7−1.9
28 Cardinals −3.6 −2.8−0.8
29 Raiders −4.0 −3.5−0.5
30 Browns −4.5 −2.5−2.0
31 Jets −5.1 −4.0−1.1
32 Titans −6.4 −4.3−2.0

Rating: points better than an average team on a neutral field. This season, last season and the quarterback add up to it: this season’s luck-adjusted results and point margin, last season’s, and the usual starter’s expected points per dropback against an average starter. Injuries, which change the week’s predictions, are left out: one week’s news.

Top 10, week 1

  1. Los Angeles Rams +5.7
  2. Seattle Seahawks +4.8
  3. Buffalo Bills +4.3
  4. New England Patriots +4.1
  5. Detroit Lions +3.5
  6. Denver Broncos +3.4
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars +2.3
  8. Green Bay Packers +2.2
  9. Houston Texans +2.0
  10. Baltimore Ravens +1.8

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NFL power rankings for week 1 of 2026?

The Los Angeles Rams, rated +5.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field. Next: the Seattle Seahawks (+4.8) and the Buffalo Bills (+4.3).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s results adjusted for luck (every kick, fumble bounce, 3rd and 4th down and judgment call re-rolled at its expected rate) and point margins, last season’s, which count like six games at half strength, and the usual starting quarterback’s expected points per dropback. The rating is the points a team would beat an average team by on a neutral field; the same ratings make our predictions, which picked 65% of winners in tests on every season since 2001.

Why is a team with a better record ranked lower?

Because records carry luck: about 38% of the spread in NFL records is luck, and close games, fumble bounces and missed kicks even out. A team that won its games by luck is rated on how it played.

Predictions · Luck rankings 2026 · Expected wins · How the replays work