2026 season · through Week 2

NFL power rankings, week 3

All 32 teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the points it would beat an average team by on a neutral field. The Seahawks are No. 1 at +6.7 points, the 49ers No. 2 (+5.4), the Bills No. 3 (+5.2).

Biggest climb since last week: the Panthers, up 10 to No. 19. Biggest drop: the Jaguars, down 6 to No. 8. The Vikings are 2–0 with +1.0 wins of luck in it, so they rank below what the record says. The same ratings make our predictions.

#	Move	Team	Record	Rating	This season	Last season	QB	Luck
1	–	Seahawks	2–0	+6.7	+3.0	+3.1	+0.5	+0.4
2	▲5	49ers	2–0	+5.4	+3.7	+0.6	+1.1	+0.1
3	–	Bills	2–0	+5.2	+1.4	+2.3	+1.6	+0.2
4	▲4	Rams	1–1	+4.7	+0.1	+3.2	+1.4	−0.1
5	–	Chiefs	2–0	+4.2	+2.8	+0.6	+0.8	+0.6
6	▲4	Patriots	1–1	+3.7	+0.7	+2.5	+0.5	−0.1
7	▼3	Ravens	1–1	+3.4	+1.8	+0.7	+1.0	−0.6
8	▼6	Jaguars	1–1	+3.0	+1.1	+1.8	+0.2	−0.4
9	▼3	Lions	1–1	+2.1	−1.0	+1.4	+1.7	+0.5
10	▼1	Bears	1–1	+2.1	+1.6	+0.3	+0.1	−0.3
11	–	Eagles	2–0	+1.9	+0.5	+1.1	+0.4	+1.0
12	▲3	Broncos	1–1	+1.5	−0.9	+2.3	+0.2	+0.3
13	▲4	Cowboys	1–1	+1.3	+1.1	−0.8	+1.0	−0.7
14	▲2	Packers	1–1	+0.9	−0.8	+0.6	+1.2	+0.1
15	▼2	Vikings	2–0	+0.8	+1.6	−0.6	−0.3	+1.0
16	▲4	Bengals	2–0	+0.3	+1.3	−1.4	+0.5	+0.4
17	▼5	Texans	0–2	−0.1	−1.4	+1.6	−0.3	−0.5
18	▲7	Raiders	2–0	−0.7	+2.3	−2.6	−0.4	+0.9
19	▲10	Panthers	1–1	−0.8	+0.4	−0.6	−0.6	−0.1
20	▼6	Steelers	1–1	−1.5	−0.6	0.0	−0.9	0.0
21	▲3	Saints	1–1	−1.6	−0.4	−0.7	−0.6	+0.2
22	▼4	Buccaneers	0–2	−1.8	−0.8	−1.0	0.0	−0.5
23	–	Colts	0–2	−2.5	−2.7	+0.4	−0.2	−0.6
24	▼3	Chargers	0–2	−2.5	−2.7	+0.5	−0.3	−0.8
25	▼6	Giants	1–1	−2.9	−1.3	−1.3	−0.3	+0.8
26	▲1	Jets	1–1	−3.0	+0.9	−3.0	−0.9	−0.4
27	▼5	Cardinals	1–1	−3.4	−0.6	−2.1	−0.8	+0.3
28	▼2	Commanders	0–2	−3.8	−2.1	−1.7	0.0	−0.8
29	▼1	Dolphins	0–2	−4.6	−2.9	−1.4	−0.3	−0.6
30	▲1	Browns	1–1	−4.8	−1.1	−1.9	−1.7	+0.4
31	▼1	Falcons	0–2	−6.5	−3.4	−0.6	−2.5	−0.2
32	–	Titans	0–2	−6.8	−1.4	−3.3	−2.1	−0.6

Rating: points better than an average team on a neutral field. This season, last season and the quarterback add up to it: this season’s luck-adjusted results and point margin, last season’s, and the usual starter’s expected points per dropback against an average starter. Luck: wins above what the team’s play was worth, from replaying every game 4,000 times. Injuries, which change the week’s predictions, are left out: one week’s news.

Top 10, week 3

Seattle Seahawks +6.7, 2–0
San Francisco 49ers +5.4, 2–0
Buffalo Bills +5.2, 2–0
Los Angeles Rams +4.7, 1–1
Kansas City Chiefs +4.2, 2–0
New England Patriots +3.7, 1–1
Baltimore Ravens +3.4, 1–1
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0, 1–1
Detroit Lions +2.1, 1–1
Chicago Bears +2.1, 1–1

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the NFL power rankings for week 3 of 2026?

The Seattle Seahawks, rated +6.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, from a 2–0 start. Next: the San Francisco 49ers (+5.4) and the Buffalo Bills (+5.2).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s results adjusted for luck (every kick, fumble bounce, 3rd and 4th down and judgment call re-rolled at its expected rate) and point margins, last season’s, which count like six games at half strength, and the usual starting quarterback’s expected points per dropback. The rating is the points a team would beat an average team by on a neutral field; the same ratings make our predictions, which picked 65% of winners in tests on every season since 2001.

Why is a team with a better record ranked lower?

Because records carry luck: about 38% of the spread in NFL records is luck, and close games, fumble bounces and missed kicks even out. A team that won its games by luck is rated on how it played, like the Vikings: 2–0, +1.0 wins of luck, ranked 15; one that lost by bad luck ranks higher than its record, like the Chargers (0–2, −0.8 wins of luck, ranked 24).

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