2024 NFL season · final · regular season

Expected wins, 2024: what each team’s play was worth

The Chiefs won 15 games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.1, the biggest gap in the league, and points scored and allowed put them at 10.2. The 49ers are the other way round: 6 wins from play worth 10.5.

Team	Record	Replay wins	Coin-flip wins	Pythagorean	Betting line	Wins − replay
Lions	15–2	12.2	11.3	13.0	11.0	+2.8
Chiefs	15–2	12.1	11.3	10.2	10.6	+2.9
Eagles	14–3	11.8	13.2	12.4	10.4	+2.2
Vikings	14–3	11.7	10.1	11.1	9.5	+2.3
Bills	13–4	12.3	11.8	11.9	10.3	+0.7
Ravens	12–5	13.9	13.7	11.9	11.2	−1.9
Commanders	12–5	12.0	10.8	10.6	9.2	0.0
Packers	11–6	12.4	13.2	11.5	9.8	−1.4
Chargers	11–6	8.5	10.4	11.3	9.4	+2.5
Buccaneers	10–7	10.8	9.8	11.1	9.2	−0.8
Texans	10–7	9.5	8.9	8.5	9.3	+0.5
Rams	10–7	8.7	7.4	8.0	8.2	+1.3
Seahawks	10–7	8.3	8.4	8.7	8.5	+1.7
Broncos	10–7	7.3	11.9	11.5	8.4	+2.7
Steelers	10–7	7.2	8.6	9.4	8.4	+2.8
Bengals	9–8	10.9	10.8	9.3	10.0	−1.9
Falcons	8–9	10.3	8.8	7.7	9.3	−2.3
Cardinals	8–9	10.2	8.6	9.0	8.1	−2.2
Colts	8–9	8.9	7.2	7.3	8.0	−0.9
Dolphins	8–9	6.7	7.8	8.0	8.9	+1.3
Cowboys	7–10	6.1	5.4	5.7	7.0	+0.9
49ers	6–11	10.5	9.5	7.4	9.7	−4.5
Jets	5–12	7.4	8.2	6.7	9.0	−2.4
Saints	5–12	7.3	6.1	6.9	7.1	−2.3
Bears	5–12	4.4	5.9	6.7	7.3	+0.6
Panthers	5–12	2.7	4.0	4.4	5.3	+2.3
Raiders	4–13	6.8	4.5	5.3	6.2	−2.8
Jaguars	4–13	5.4	6.3	5.5	7.2	−1.4
Patriots	4–13	4.3	6.0	5.0	5.6	−0.3
Titans	3–14	5.4	3.4	4.8	7.0	−2.4
Giants	3–14	4.0	5.0	4.6	6.1	−1.1
Browns	3–14	2.0	3.6	3.8	6.7	+1.0

Replay wins: Summed over the season: how often the team wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams actually played.
Coin-flip wins: The same with only kicks, bounces, drops, conversions and calls re-rolled. The number that best predicts the rest of a season: correlation 0.437 against 0.378 for actual wins.
Pythagorean: From points scored and allowed: games × PF^2.37 / (PF^2.37 + PA^2.37).
Betting line: Summed win chances from each game’s closing spread: what the market expected before kickoff.

Luck-adjusted standings

Each division: record on the left, replay wins on the right. A line that falls from left to right belongs to a team whose record ran ahead of its play.

AFC East

BUF 13–4

MIA 8–9

NYJ 5–12

NE 4–13 12.36.77.44.3

RecordReplay wins

AFC North

BAL 12–5

PIT 10–7

CIN 9–8

CLE 3–14 13.97.210.92.0

RecordReplay wins

AFC South

HOU 10–7

IND 8–9

JAX 4–13

TEN 3–14 9.58.95.45.4

RecordReplay wins

AFC West

KC 15–2

LAC 11–6

DEN 10–7

LV 4–13 12.18.57.36.8

RecordReplay wins

NFC East

PHI 14–3

WAS 12–5

DAL 7–10

NYG 3–14 11.812.06.14.0

RecordReplay wins

NFC North

DET 15–2

MIN 14–3

GB 11–6

CHI 5–12 12.211.712.44.4

RecordReplay wins

NFC South

TB 10–7

ATL 8–9

CAR 5–12

NO 5–12 10.810.32.77.3

RecordReplay wins

NFC West

SEA 10–7

LA 10–7

ARI 8–9

SF 6–11 8.38.710.210.5

RecordReplay wins

Adjust the assumptions

Change how much of each kind of play counts as luck, and every team’s coin-flip wins are recomputed for the whole season.

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 25%Fumble bounces 75%Interceptions 0%Drops 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 100%Pre-snap flags 0%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

Tested on 19,000 lucky breaks: no momentum, so it’s off by default. Why

#	Team	Wins	Coin-flip wins	Luck
1	Ravens	12	13.6	−1.6
2	Eagles	14	13.2	+0.8
3	Packers	11	13.2	−2.2
4	Broncos	10	11.9	−1.9
5	Bills	13	11.8	+1.2
6	Chiefs	15	11.3	+3.7
7	Lions	15	11.2	+3.8
8	Commanders	12	10.8	+1.2
9	Bengals	9	10.8	−1.8
10	Chargers	11	10.4	+0.6
11	Vikings	14	10.1	+3.9
12	Buccaneers	10	9.8	+0.2
13	49ers	6	9.5	−3.5
14	Texans	10	8.9	+1.1
15	Falcons	8	8.8	−0.8
16	Cardinals	8	8.6	−0.6
17	Steelers	10	8.6	+1.4
18	Seahawks	10	8.3	+1.7
19	Jets	5	8.3	−3.3
20	Dolphins	8	7.8	+0.2
21	Rams	10	7.4	+2.6
22	Colts	8	7.3	+0.7
23	Jaguars	4	6.3	−2.3
24	Saints	5	6.1	−1.1
25	Patriots	4	6.0	−2.0
26	Bears	5	5.9	−0.9
27	Cowboys	7	5.4	+1.6
28	Giants	3	5.0	−2.0
29	Raiders	4	4.6	−0.6
30	Panthers	5	4.0	+1.0
31	Browns	3	3.6	−0.6
32	Titans	3	3.4	−0.4

2024 luck rankings · One-score games · Referee calls · Methodology