2024 NFL season · final · decided by 8 points or fewer

One-score games, 2024

The Panthers went 4–3 in one-score games; replayed with the same day’s form, they win 1.3 of those 7, the most close-game luck in the league. The 49ers went 2–6, from play worth 5.1 wins. If every one-score game had gone the other way, the Broncos would lead the league at 15–2.

Close-game records look like clutch and rarely last: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s one-score win rate carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record.

Team	One-score record	Replay wins in those	Close-game luck	Record	If they flipped
Chiefs	11–0	8.4 of 11	+2.6	15–2	4–13
Vikings	9–1	7.1 of 10	+1.9	14–3	6–11
Eagles	8–2	6.0 of 10	+2.0	14–3	8–9
Lions	7–2	5.2 of 9	+1.8	15–2	10–7
Seahawks	6–2	5.2 of 8	+0.8	10–7	6–11
Commanders	8–4	7.8 of 12	+0.2	12–5	8–9
Bills	5–3	5.4 of 8	−0.4	13–4	11–6
Rams	8–5	7.0 of 13	+1.0	10–7	7–10
Colts	8–5	7.5 of 13	+0.5	8–9	5–12
Steelers	6–4	4.0 of 10	+2.0	10–7	8–9
Texans	7–5	6.6 of 12	+0.4	10–7	8–9
Panthers	4–3	1.3 of 7	+2.7	5–12	4–13
Falcons	6–6	7.0 of 12	−1.0	8–9	8–9
Cowboys	5–5	4.1 of 10	+0.9	7–10	7–10
Packers	5–5	6.6 of 10	−1.6	11–6	11–6
Ravens	5–5	7.7 of 10	−2.7	12–5	12–5
Chargers	4–4	2.5 of 8	+1.5	11–6	11–6
Dolphins	4–4	2.7 of 8	+1.3	8–9	8–9
Browns	3–4	1.0 of 7	+2.0	3–14	4–13
Raiders	3–4	2.5 of 7	+0.5	4–13	5–12
Buccaneers	3–5	3.6 of 8	−0.6	10–7	12–5
Cardinals	3–5	4.9 of 8	−1.9	8–9	10–7
Bengals	4–7	6.8 of 11	−2.8	9–8	12–5
Patriots	3–6	2.8 of 9	+0.2	4–13	7–10
Bears	3–7	2.0 of 10	+1.0	5–12	9–8
Jets	3–7	4.7 of 10	−1.7	5–12	9–8
Saints	2–6	3.6 of 8	−1.6	5–12	9–8
Titans	2–6	3.7 of 8	−1.7	3–14	7–10
49ers	2–6	5.1 of 8	−3.1	6–11	10–7
Jaguars	3–10	4.4 of 13	−1.4	4–13	11–6
Broncos	1–6	2.0 of 7	−1.0	10–7	15–2
Giants	1–8	2.8 of 9	−1.8	3–14	10–7